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Elvis And His Options

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  • Elvis And His Options

    Elvis has player options after the 2018 and 2019 season. For a few years it seemed that there was no chance he would use those options. He likely will have his strongest season in terms of WAR this season. If he keeps up his current level of performance then it seems a decent possibility that he will opt out.

    So what should the Rangers do with Andrus?

    Certainly if they believe that they will compete next year they should hold onto him. But if they believe that they will not compete and go into rebuild mode then he might be a valuable trade asset.

    Should his options affect the likelihood of holding onto Profar?


  • #2
    Originally posted by andymoteach View Post
    Elvis has player options after the 2018 and 2019 season. For a few years it seemed that there was no chance he would use those options. He likely will have his strongest season in terms of WAR this season. If he keeps up his current level of performance then it seems a decent possibility that he will opt out.

    So what should the Rangers do with Andrus?

    Certainly if they believe that they will compete next year they should hold onto him. But if they believe that they will not compete and go into rebuild mode then he might be a valuable trade asset.

    Should his options affect the likelihood of holding onto Profar?
    the same reason you would consider trading him will inherently limit his market for anyone that is not a world series contender. If control is your issue it is going to be the same with profar.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by rainag View Post

      the same reason you would consider trading him will inherently limit his market for anyone that is not a world series contender. If control is your issue it is going to be the same with profar.
      I'll bet that Profar would take a lower extension than what Elvis currently makes.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by andymoteach View Post
        So what should the Rangers do with Andrus?
        I think the odds are high that Andrus stays on his current contract. He is well paid, but not really overpaid, on his current deal. He also seems very happy in Texas, especially with the new family.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Kaisersoze View Post

          I think the odds are high that Andrus stays on his current contract. He is well paid, but not really overpaid, on his current deal. He also seems very happy in Texas, especially with the new family.
          There also aren't many big-market teams in need of his services. The Dodgers have Seager, the Yankees have Gregorius and Torres, the Red Sox have Bogaerts, the Cubs have Russell, the Nationals have Turner, the Angels have Simmons, the Mets have Rosario, etc. For Elvis to opt out, he has to be confident that he could get more than $15 million per year for the next four or five seasons depending on which winter (2018 or '19) he's weighing his options. I just don't see that many teams in the bidding,.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by dannyboy8517 View Post

            There also aren't many big-market teams in need of his services. The Dodgers have Seager, the Yankees have Gregorius and Torres, the Red Sox have Bogaerts, the Cubs have Russell, the Nationals have Turner, the Angels have Simmons, the Mets have Rosario, etc. For Elvis to opt out, he has to be confident that he could get more than $15 million per year for the next four or five seasons depending on which winter (2018 or '19) he's weighing his options. I just don't see that many teams in the bidding,.
            His agent will use the moment to extract some benefit even if he doesn't want to leave.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by texassooner1 View Post

              His agent will use the moment to extract some benefit even if he doesn't want to leave.
              Never count out the scenario where Arte Moreno gives him the same contract ARod had. Its like a moth to a flame.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by texassooner1 View Post

                His agent will use the moment to extract some benefit even if he doesn't want to leave.
                He can try, but there has to be a market. I'm not seeing one currently. The only major market team with a potential need and the means to offer Elvis a pay raise is Detroit. And the Tigers are trying to slash payroll and retool. If Boston can't extend Bogaerts, there's a potential fit there after the 2019 season. But if they're going to be offering $16-18 million a year, why not just give that Bogaerts?

                It's just a bad time to be a free agent shortstop right now. The market's too saturated with good young ones for a guy with Elvis' skill set to cash in more than he currently is. I'm sure there are teams that would like to have Elvis. But not enough to give him a bank-breaking contract or give up on an elite young prospect.
                Last edited by dannyboy8517; 08-10-2017, 05:37 PM.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by dannyboy8517 View Post
                  He can try, but there has to be a market. I'm not seeing one currently. The only major market team with a potential need and the means to offer Elvis a pay raise is Detroit. And the Tigers are trying to slash payroll and retool. If Boston can't extend Bogaerts, there's a potential fit there after the 2019 season. But if they're going to be offering $16-18 million a year, why not just give that Bogaerts?

                  It's just a bad time to be a free agent shortstop right now. The market's too saturated with good young ones for a guy with Elvis' skill set to cash in more than he currently is. I'm sure there are teams that would like to have Elvis. But not enough to give him a bank-breaking contract or give up on an elite young prospect.
                  A few of the assumptions you have made are generally true, but others are not or are missing the whole,picture. The not just about getting a raise, it's about getting more guaranteed money. So, if he should GM's for $15m/year, but for more years, it's a win for him Plus, there are many more teams available,to him than just the typical one St hat you identify. AZ, SF, SL, NYM have all handed out many big contracts. Maybe the PP are getting ready to compete again and are ready to spend. Ditto with CWS. You just don't know how the landscape will change ov r that period.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Doug View Post

                    A few of the assumptions you have made are generally true, but others are not or are missing the whole,picture. The not just about getting a raise, it's about getting more guaranteed money. So, if he should GM's for $15m/year, but for more years, it's a win for him Plus, there are many more teams available,to him than just the typical one St hat you identify. AZ, SF, SL, NYM have all handed out many big contracts. Maybe the PP are getting ready to compete again and are ready to spend. Ditto with CWS. You just don't know how the landscape will change ov r that period.
                    --Arizona has three decent shortstops under contract already with good prospects behind them.
                    --San Francisco is tied to Brandon Crawford through 2020 on a deal that's way too expensive too eat.
                    --St. Louis has two talented young options in Paul DeJong and Aledmys Diaz.
                    --The Mets will give top-prospect Amed Rosario every opportunity to seize that job.
                    --Same with the Phillies and J.P Crawford.
                    --Same with the White Sox and Tim Anderson.

                    You're right, of course, that the landscape can -- and likely will -- change between now and Elvis' two opt-out dates. But $15 million a year is still a lot of money, especially for a guy who will be 30 years old -- at the youngest -- when he hits the market. There could be a team that views Elvis as a big enough upgrade at that point to top the five-year, $73 million (after 2018) or four-year, $58 million (after 2019) he holds in his hand currently with 2023's vesting option. But I don't see many such teams right now. All it takes is one, of course, but Elvis doesn't strike me as the type of player a team's going to break the bank for, particularly with the depth of talent at that position currently.
                    Last edited by dannyboy8517; 08-11-2017, 01:16 AM.

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                    • #11
                      I agree w/you DannyBoy about the demand not being high right now...or in the apparent future. And Andrus' age will certainly suppress his value for any longterm deal.

                      That said, Doug's point is a good one and I think you skirted it a bit. Elvis's agent will be not just whispering in his ear, but yelling in his ear: Listen Elvis, NOW is the time to get into what may be your last big longterm deal. And frankly, that is financially what makes the most sense.

                      In this case that agent is none other than Scott Boras, who is pretty darn convincing with all parties.

                      If Andrus opts out he can still later re-sign with Texas... all Boras needs to do is find one other bidder...and the escalation of competitive negotiations kicks in.

                      There might even be a team out there who would pay him enough to convince him to move to second base.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ProfarMVP View Post
                        I agree w/you DannyBoy about the demand not being high right now...or in the apparent future. And Andrus' age will certainly suppress his value for any longterm deal.

                        That said, Doug's point is a good one and I think you skirted it a bit. Elvis's agent will be not just whispering in his ear, but yelling in his ear: Listen Elvis, NOW is the time to get into what may be your last big longterm deal. And frankly, that is financially what makes the most sense.

                        In this case that agent is none other than Scott Boras, who is pretty darn convincing with all parties.

                        If Andrus opts out he can still later re-sign with Texas... all Boras needs to do is find one other bidder...and the escalation of competitive negotiations kicks in.

                        There might even be a team out there who would pay him enough to convince him to move to second base.
                        I conceded as much above. At the end of the day, though, it doesn't matter who your agent is or what he says if there's not a market for your services at that price. Elvis is a good player, and I hope he stays a Ranger for the life of his contract. But that same contract people have been whining about here for years is the baseline for what another team will have to pay him to make opting out make sense. I could be wrong, but I just don't see many teams being willing to do that. There's just too much talent at that position right now, and a 30-year-old Elvis Andrus isn't the type of player you give a five-year, $80 million or six-year, 90 million deal to. And frankly, if Elvis wants to let Boras hold the Rangers hostage over that, I thank him for the memories, wish him well and tell him to take what he can get on the open market. I would expect him to be disappointed with the outcome, though.
                        Last edited by dannyboy8517; 08-11-2017, 01:30 AM.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by dannyboy8517 View Post
                          There's just too much talent at that position right now, and a 30-year-old Elvis Andrus isn't the type of player you give a five-year, $80 million or six-year, 90 million deal to. And frankly, if Elvis wants to let Boras hold the Rangers hostage over that, I thank him for the memories, wish him well and tell him to take what he can get on the open market. I would expect him to be disappointed with the outcome, though.
                          It depends on where the Rangers will be Profar. The Rangers will need someone to play shortstop. Elvis is on pace for 4WAR...that kind of production isn't cheap.

                          You know by know how I feel about long term contracts for +30 year old players. The imminent decline in Elvis' athleticism doesn't make me over-eager to see the team give him a long term deal.

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                          • #14
                            He's already got a big-money, long-term contract. If he wants more, he can get it from another team. Finding an adequate replacement for cheap wouldn't be difficult. And that's coming from someone who really likes Elvis and would like to see him stay.

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