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What is the Equation?

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  • What is the Equation?


    I have a couple of scenarios to illustrate the issues at stake regarding being a buyer or seller.

    Suppose at the deadline the Rangers decide to be sellers. This means the front office has determined the Rangers won't win anything this year. So, they trade Darvish, Gomez, Ross and Lucroy, probably the only players that any tean would think would make a differnece and the Rangers would give up. What would they get?

    I propose they would get a couple of 55 grade or higher prospects for Darvish and five 50 grade prospects, no posteason appearance and no chance at the World Series Championship.

    Then, suppose we are buyers. So, we trade Lucroy for two 50 grade prospects and trade Profar for Hand and a 50-grade prospect. The season ends and we still have Darvish, Ross and Gomez. So, we offer all three the QO and get three compensation picks.

    Does this sound realistic? If so, here's the tally:

    Sellers
    --two 55-grade or above prospects
    --five 50-grade prospects

    Buyers
    --Chance at Wild Card
    --Chance at World Series Championship
    --Hand
    --three 50-grade prospects
    --three compensation draft picks

    Sorry, I see a difference, but it's not great. The difference is the prospects are more advanced if we trade now, more predictable and a couple are "likely" to be pretty good. It's maybe seven prospect to six. At best, maybe eight to six. Or, maybe you only get a 45 grade prospect thrown in with Hand. Who knows? What we do know is it doesn't matter a whole lot. It's not a wildly different outcome. What matters the most is that chance to get into the postseason and that chance to win the World Series.

    Y'all may think I'm nuts about what we can get, but one sure thing is that with the QO we get a compensation pick.

    I admit the trade now scenario is better. Further, suppose we sign Darvish or Ross over the winter, no compensation picks there. We would lose Profar but so what? He's blocked. We could also throw in Ibanez who is blocked and maybe get a prospect we really need, like an outfielder.

    I'm just throwing this out there to see what y'all think. Is it so great to trade a bunch of players at the deadline? Or is it a lot more cool to try to win this?
    Last edited by Flounder1; 07-15-2017, 01:57 AM.

  • #2
    I doubt that Gomez or Ross are given a QO.

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    • #3
      While I tend to think that trading some guys if the return is right is the best thing. I'm not on board with the trade or bust crowd - the folks who say if all you end up with is a draft choice for Darvish it's a complete loss. They overlook the value of going for it even if you fall short. Players respect JD and crew for believing in them. And then there is the chance you might make a WC and might win a WC game and make the playoffs. So, while I would sell, it's not the black or white issue that some make it out to be, JMO

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Redcap View Post
        I doubt that Gomez or Ross are given a QO.
        Unless he completely blows the last 60 games, Gomez is worth a QO for sure. No brainer.

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        • #5
          I'm starting to buy back into this team. If we can use this series to get ahead of Kansas City then I'm confident we're better than 2 out of 3 (New York/Minnesota/Tampa Bay) probably the latter 2.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Doug View Post

            Unless he completely blows the last 60 games, Gomez is worth a QO for sure. No brainer.
            And you don't think he'd accept a one year deal for around 18 million?

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Doug View Post

              Unless he completely blows the last 60 games, Gomez is worth a QO for sure. No brainer.
              And he will probably turn it down for a three-year $40-45 million deal, swapping a year of more money for security. Ross might be a question, but if he plays up to his old self he's definitely one who will be offered more years by somebody. He could wind up one of the top three or four pitchers on the market this winter. He was that good before and that's his plan. Also, if they accept the QO you may only be putting off getting the draft pick a year when you offer it again. I think it would be pretty cool to get a relief pitcher and a couple of prospects now for Lucroy and Profar, go for the World Series, and get a couple more draft picks with the QO. It would be cool to win the World Series and get all those extra draft picks next June.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by BombsAwayJoeyGallo View Post
                I'm starting to buy back into this team. If we can use this series to get ahead of Kansas City then I'm confident we're better than 2 out of 3 (New York/Minnesota/Tampa Bay) probably the latter 2.
                Yeah, those Yankees are falling like a rock. The Twins run differential indicates they have been very lucky. I'm not so sure about the Rays not being a challenge, but some are now saying that the Wild Cards could be the Rangers and Angels and not the Yankees and Rays. Then you have the postseason itself. Keuchel's neck injury looks more serious than everyone thought. Without him, do they stand a chance of beating the Rangers in the postseason? We know the Nationals were no challenge to the Rangers when we swept them, but what about the Dodgers? Lots of questions to be answered.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Flounder1 View Post

                  And he will probably turn it down for a three-year $40-45 million deal, swapping a year of more money for security. Ross might be a question, but if he plays up to his old self he's definitely one who will be offered more years by somebody. He could wind up one of the top three or four pitchers on the market this winter. He was that good before and that's his plan. Also, if they accept the QO you may only be putting off getting the draft pick a year when you offer it again. I think it would be pretty cool to get a relief pitcher and a couple of prospects now for Lucroy and Profar, go for the World Series, and get a couple more draft picks with the QO. It would be cool to win the World Series and get all those extra draft picks next June.
                  In that case, the Rangers would get a choice after the competitive draft B and right before the 3rd round.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Redcap View Post

                    And you don't think he'd accept a one year deal for around 18 million?
                    If he's offered 3/$45+ somewhere else, no he won't.

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                    • #11
                      I think it would be OK if he signed for one year. That is still one year closer to the new stadium and someone emerging from the minors.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Redcap View Post
                        I doubt that Gomez or Ross are given a QO.
                        No way Ross is given a QO, but Gomez will. Unless he falls off the face of the earth in the second half, he will definitely receive and reject a qualifying offer. I'd be surprised if Gomez doesn't get an offer similar to Ian Desmond last Winter.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Flounder1 View Post

                          The Twins run differential indicates they have been very lucky.
                          Texas had a negative run differential in 2016 and went on to have the best record in the American League. The Dude pointed that out to you and your lofty expectations for 2017 and you didn't seem to have a problem with it then.

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                          • #14
                            If Ross pitches like before his injury, he may not garner a $17 million per year contract of multiple years. He may not even be worth the QO if he's pitching like that, but if he's pitching up to his former self, he's near worth that. He'd easily be worth $40 million or more over three years. He will take that over the QO for job security reasons, so may as well offer him the QO. It only depends on Ross's ability to prove his injury is behind him.

                            The three years before his injury he had a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Pitchers like that get good multi-year contracts all the time. He's only 30 years old. Teams will look like it as a rebirth where they can get three good years out of him. All he has to do is show he's 100% and is pitching like before his injury.

                            And, that's why he accepted playing for the Rangers cheap... so he can reestablish his value and get a deal like that. If he is successful, the Rangers would be silly to not make him the QO.

                            We're definitely going to get draft picks of we don't trade these guys at the deadline and they don't sign with us. We also can pick up some prospects at the trade deadline and get the relief pitcher we need.

                            Profar is an ideal candidate to trade for a relief pitcher and prospects. We may not get Hand, but we may get a good rental who can help this beleaguered bullpen, plus prospects who can help in the future. Profar is blocked, so he would be a good players to trade to beef up the farm in an area of need, like the outfield. Ibanez is another trade candidate. We may be able to get a couple of good prospects for Lucroy, as well. The Cubs and Indians like him, possibly others.

                            So, there's a lot of IFs in this equation. First, the team must play well until the deadline. Second, we must develop a trade for a relief pitcher. Third, it would be great if Gomez and Ross establish a market for their services after the season so we can offer them the QO. At the bare minimum, we will definitely get a draft pick for Darvish. Potentially, we could land three. Potentially, we could pick up some prospects at the trade deadline.

                            Any opportunity losses for the farm from avoiding a tear-down and going for it all are not all that great. They are significant, but not enormously so when considering the young players we are going to get with the QO and potential non-surrender trades at the deadline.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by RangerDude2016 View Post

                              Texas had a negative run differential in 2016 and went on to have the best record in the American League. The Dude pointed that out to you and your lofty expectations for 2017 and you didn't seem to have a problem with it then.
                              This is actually false. By the trade deadline the Rangers had improved their run differential. They had a negative run differential early because of early play without some key players, and had a very good run differential in the second half. It was so good, they had a positive run differential by year-end. Things change, like you are seeing them change for the Yankees as they fall off the cliff.

                              I don't know why you keep making up stuff.

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