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If only Gallo could.....

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  • If only Gallo could.....

    Raise his BA 30-40 points. The guy has of the charts power and is fun to watch. I say keep him out there and let him figure it out. What it must feel like to hit a baseball that freaking hard!! Ha

  • #2
    Originally posted by pibrew View Post
    Raise his BA 30-40 points. The guy has of the charts power and is fun to watch. I say keep him out there and let him figure it out. What it must feel like to hit a baseball that freaking hard!! Ha
    His power is absolutely enormous -- literally among the best in baseball history. But as long as he's striking out as his current rate, he's going to have trouble finding any sort consistency at the plate. He'll look like a god when he's hot and like a dud when he's not, and you just trust it will balance out at the end. I still think he's made some nice progress this season, and I'm glad he's getting a chance to play every day, but I think we've seen both the upside and downside of his hitting profile in the first two months of this season. And I think he'll settle in closer to the Mark Reynolds on steroids profile than the .950 OPS guy he was in April. And that's OK. There's value in that, just not nearly as much as there'd be if he could ever get his K rate into a more manageable range.

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    • #3
      If he plays regukar, he's going hit over 30 hrs. If he can manage .220/31 hrs/85 rbi/.775 ops that would be great Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

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      • #4
        I'm sure Joey would like to strike out less, and I suspect we'll see some improvement. But I doubt he'll ever hit even .250 for a season. As you suggest Pibrew...a .230 ave would really lead to a torrent of production.

        People are going to have to learn to accept a lot of K's and a lower batting average with the guy. There will always be some ugly stretches as Danny suggests.

        Even after his little drought recently--some of which was pure bad BABIP luck--he's currently posting a 116 wRC+. SABR likes him. And any fan who likes RBIs and runs scored should like him too. Even with that ugly BA and all those Ks....he's leading the Rangers both in RBI and in runs scored.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Incy29 View Post
          If he plays regukar, he's going hit over 30 hrs. If he can manage .220/31 hrs/85 rbi/.775 ops that would be great Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
          Incy...frankly 30 home runs might almost a bad year for a full-time Gallo.

          He's a rare bird. He will almost certainly lead the league in strike-outs. But I could easily see him hit 45 bombs and produce over 100 RBI this year. Quite possibly some growth on that over the next year or two. He can go yard with ease to right, center, and left field...even on occasions where he doesn't make particularly great contact.

          The key stat to track with him is his walk rate. It's 12.5% right now. There are a lot of nights he's scored runs w/out having a hit.

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          • #6
            Gallo at best is Trumbo, it appears.

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            • #7
              The Dude is surprised at how fast Gallo has adapted and grown. I, along with everyone else, knew and accepted that Gallo would be prone to slumps even more so than your typical young hitter. However, The Dude is impressed to see him with an improved contact percentage and not chasing as much as he used to in the midsts of a slump. While Gallo is still striking out a ton, his K% of 38.9% for the season is below his career average of 44.2%, which is a notable improvement all while maintaining an impressive BB% of 12.7%, which is almost identical to his career average. The Dude was one of the guys saying keep Gallo in AAA all year and suggested trading him for the right offer, but I see maturity which suggests Gallo may be here to stay and I am almost willing to include Gallo to his list of Untouchables, which currently only consists of Mazara and Profar.

              Something The Dude finds particularly interesting is Gallo has a .210 BABIP this year. A hitter with Gallo's profile is probably never going to have a normal BABIP around .300, however, he still hits the ball hard even when he isn't hitting home runs. His hard contact percentage of 46% may be leading the MLB. It's a difficult stat to research, but so far I can't find anyone hitting the ball harder than him right now. This tells me Gallo may be on the rise. We could be looking at Adam Dunn 2.0

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              • #8
                Originally posted by RangerDude2016 View Post
                The Dude is surprised at how fast Gallo has adapted and grown. I, along with everyone else, knew and accepted that Gallo would be prone to slumps even more so than your typical young hitter. However, The Dude is impressed to see him with an improved contact percentage and not chasing as much as he used to in the midsts of a slump. While Gallo is still striking out a ton, his K% of 38.9% for the season is below his career average of 44.2%, which is a notable improvement all while maintaining an impressive BB% of 12.7%, which is almost identical to his career average. The Dude was one of the guys saying keep Gallo in AAA all year and suggested trading him for the right offer, but I see maturity which suggests Gallo may be here to stay and I am almost willing to include Gallo to his list of Untouchables, which currently only consists of Mazara and Profar.

                Something The Dude finds particularly interesting is Gallo has a .210 BABIP this year. A hitter with Gallo's profile is probably never going to have a normal BABIP around .300, however, he still hits the ball hard even when he isn't hitting home runs. His hard contact percentage of 46% may be leading the MLB. It's a difficult stat to research, but so far I can't find anyone hitting the ball harder than him right now. This tells me Gallo may be on the rise. We could be looking at Adam Dunn 2.0
                The difference between Dunn and Gallo -- ignoring Gallo's massive advantage in defense and speed -- is that Dunn hit .240-.260 at his peak, which resulted in truly elite OBP seasons that Gallo's unlikely to ever have. But I, like you, have been impressed with the progress Joey has made in his pitch recognition and strike zone discipline. With a .185-.215 batting average, it will likely never amount to more than .330 OBP, but it will keep the on-base percentage in a passable range and allow his power to play.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by dannyboy8517 View Post

                  The difference between Dunn and Gallo -- ignoring Gallo's massive advantage in defense and speed -- is that Dunn hit .240-.260 at his peak, which resulted in truly elite OBP seasons that Gallo's unlikely to ever have. But I, like you, have been impressed with the progress Joey has made in his pitch recognition and strike zone discipline. With a .185-.215 batting average, it will likely never amount to more than .330 OBP, but it will keep the on-base percentage in a passable range and allow his power to play.
                  I think his point was that if Gallo's BABIP rose to a more normal level, that Gallo's BA would be .240ish. Which of course is Adam Dunn territory. At least that's what I took from his post. I have to admit, I can't see any reason for a .210 BABIP other than bad luck.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Doug View Post

                    I think his point was that if Gallo's BABIP rose to a more normal level, that Gallo's BA would be .240ish. Which of course is Adam Dunn territory. At least that's what I took from his post. I have to admit, I can't see any reason for a .210 BABIP other than bad luck.
                    Gallo's had a very strange season statistically, but he's a very strange hitter. There are really no comps for him because even the high-strikeout guys of the past 10-20 years are 7-15 percent off Joey's K rate. And even the high-power guys don't/didn't hit the ball as hard/far as he does on average.

                    BABIP is a particularly difficult stat to use with Gallo because it subtracts home runs, which have accounted for more than 40 percent of his hits as a major leaguer and 35 percent as a professional. Those numbers are insane and virtually unparalleled. When he hits the ball, he hits it hard, but when 35-40 percent of your hits leave the yard, it's going to be hard to have a normal BABIP without posting an extraordinarily high batting average overall.

                    Perhaps a better way to gauge what's feasible for Gallo from a batting average standpoint is to look at average on all batted balls. And here's a pretty easy way to look at that. When you're striking out in 45 percent of your at-bats (plate appearances don't matter here because walks don't impact average), you need to hit about .435 on batted balls to achieve a .240 batting average. At 40 percent, you need to hit .400 to do it. Is that a reasonable expectation? I honestly don't know. But he improves his chances of posting a respectable average dramatically if he can get that K rate down to the 30- to 35-percent range.
                    Last edited by dannyboy8517; 05-20-2017, 12:41 AM.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by dannyboy8517 View Post

                      The difference between Dunn and Gallo -- ignoring Gallo's massive advantage in defense and speed -- is that Dunn hit .240-.260 at his peak, which resulted in truly elite OBP seasons that Gallo's unlikely to ever have. But I, like you, have been impressed with the progress Joey has made in his pitch recognition and strike zone discipline. With a .185-.215 batting average, it will likely never amount to more than .330 OBP, but it will keep the on-base percentage in a passable range and allow his power to play.
                      His low BABIP coupled with his elite hard contact percentage tells me he probably won't be a .215 batting average hitter forever. I could legitimately see him being Adam Dunn 2.0

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                      • #12
                        To add some context to my post above, Gallo struck out 41.4 percent of his at-bats and hit .427 on batted balls as a minor leaguer, resulting in a .244 average.

                        As a major leaguer so far, Gallo has struck out 51.3 percent of his at-bats and hit .371 on batted balls for a .181 average.

                        This year specifically, he has struck out 45.6 percent of his at-bats and hit .347 on batted balls for a .188 average.

                        I would think that means he's been a little unlucky in 2017 and has some blue sky in his average, but I doubt very seriously there's 50-plus points of blue sky. Without lowering his K rate by a fair margin, it's going to be difficult to achieve even a .225 average in the big leagues IMO. Of course, with his power, a .220 average and .330 OBP equals a .900 OPS, but he's still got some work to do to get there.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Flounder1 View Post
                          Gallo at best is Trumbo, it appears.
                          Wow...That was a silly slur. Dour on JD and dour on Gallo and you call yourself a Ranger fan? Gallo is worlds apart from Trumbo.

                          -Trumbo has zero defensive utility even when the Orioles try to 'hide him' somewhere at a less premium position. He's hopeless with the glove. Joey shows promise that he can field a premium position.
                          -Trumbo is a sloth base-runner. Gallo above average. He even pinch runs!
                          -Trumbo doesn't walk very much. Gallo walks a lot

                          In short: Gallo is an athlete with good wheels and gun for an arm. Trumbo is no athlete and a hack at the plate.

                          Carl you are a bright guy but you seem flummoxed to understand the value here.

                          What part of this don't you get?
                          -Leading team in HR
                          -Second in walks
                          -Leading team in runs
                          -Leading team in RBI
                          -4/4 stolen bases
                          -Serviceably fielding the hot corner with positional flex
                          Last edited by ProfarMVP; 05-20-2017, 01:45 AM.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by dannyboy8517 View Post
                            Gallo's had a very strange season statistically, but he's a very strange hitter. There are really no comps for him
                            Glad to see you've come around. UNIQUE PROFILE. :-)

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ProfarMVP View Post

                              Glad to see you've come around. UNIQUE PROFILE. :-)
                              He's unique within the context of three true outcome hitters, but only in the degree to which that description fits. He is almost literally a three-outcome hitter. Using his major league stats, He strikes out 44.3 percent of plate appearances, walks 12.7 percent and hits home runs on 6.4 percent. That leaves a mere 36.6 percent of plate appearances for other outcomes.

                              Looking strictly at this season, he strikes out 39.1 percent of the time, walks 12.4 percent and homers 8.1 percent, accounting for 59.6 percent of all plate appearances.

                              Joey's historic K rate and near-unparalleled power make him unique, but he's unlikely to become the revolutionary offensive player you forecast as long as he's striking out at the rate he is. There's just too much volatility there. For every hot stretch that pushes his OPS to an elite range, there will be a weeks-long cold spell that pulls it back down to a solid, but unspectacular number.

                              He's unique in the same way Chris Davis is unique, but with a lower ceiling as long as his K rate's near 40 percent and his average is in the .185-.215 range.
                              Last edited by dannyboy8517; 05-20-2017, 02:07 AM.

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