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2015 budget- doing the math

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  • 2015 budget- doing the math

    Doing some math with what the Rangers have to work with this winter. It was posted in another thread that they will have about $20 million to spend. Baseball reference has the Rangers payroll with their current roster estimated right now at $130 million if they fill the remaining 9 open spots on the 25 man roster at $500k each. How much are they going to increase payroll from last season, which I think was around $130million?

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/te...#payroll::none

    9 locked in contracts @ $108.3 Million
    Yu, Holland, Prince, Choo, Elvis, Beltre, Leonys, Perez, Harrison

    7 arb eligible bballref est @ $18.3 million
    Feliz, Ogando, Moreland, Ross, Kirkman, Rosales, Tolleson

    9 players needed to complete 25 man roster @ $500k each $4.5million
    Prearb lkely to make 25
    Chirinos, Scheppers, Profar, Choice, Adduci, Teppesch, Odor

    So let's organize this a little differently. Non tender Kirkman, Moreland and Rosales save ~ $5mm

    25 man roster
    5 starting Pitchers
    Darvish $10mm
    Holland $7.4mm
    Tepesch $500k
    4
    5

    9 position players
    Prince $24mm
    Odor $500k
    Elvis $15mm
    Beltre $18mm
    Chirinos $500k
    Choo $14mm
    Leonys $4.75mm
    COF
    DH

    4 Bench players
    Sardi or Profar $500k
    Rua $500k
    Choice $500k
    Catcher #2

    7 Bullpen
    Feliz (arb ~$4.5mm)
    Scheppers 500k
    Tolleson (arb ~ $1mm)
    Ogando (arb ~ $3.25mm)
    Ross (arb ~ $1mm)
    Martinez 500k
    7

    DL
    Perez $1mm
    Harrison $13.2mm

    other contracts (Telis, Claudio, Knebel, etc.)
    ~$6mm

    So if the Rangers really do have $20 million to spend then they are increasong their payroll from ~$130 million to ~$150 million. Still they have to address 2 starting pitchers, a corner OF, DH and a couple bullpen pieces either internally, or using some of that $20 million.

    What kind of a deal can Colby expect? $8-10mm?

    If you can trade Elvis for Kemp and get back $20mm ($4mm/year over 5 years) you could plug Sardi or Profar at SS, completely address you RF issue and only add $1-2mm to the payroll. Then you could use the $20mm to sign Colby and go after Russell Martin in FA market and maybe a 1 year with an option deal for Michael Cuddyer to DH and play a little 1B and OF. But at that point you've spent more than $20 million and haven't improved your pitching staff from the year before with the exception of a healthy Holland.
    Last edited by cty; 10-24-2014, 12:58 PM.

  • #2
    No, it was posted in another thread that Evan Grant believes that is all they have to spend. I don't believe him. Here are the correct numbers. I think it comes to $113 million spent. They need a starting pitcher, a relief pitcher, an outfielder and I think a DH. :So, they will likely have to spend more than $20 million to get anyone good or trade significant players.
    10.0 SP: Darvish
    7.4 SP: Holland
    SP:
    5.0 SP: Lewis
    0.5 SP: Tepesch
    3.0 CL: Feliz ARB3
    RP:
    0.5 Tolleson
    0.5 RP: Ogando
    0.5 RP: Scheppers
    0.5 RP: Ross
    0.5 RP: Mendez
    0.5 RP: Martinez
    0.5 C: Chirinos
    24.0 1B: Fielder
    0.5 INF: Odor
    18.0 3B: Beltre
    15.0 SS: Andrus
    14.0 LF: Choo
    3.8 CF: Martin
    RF:
    0.5 DH: Choice
    0.5 C: Tellis
    3.0 1B/OF: Moreland
    0.5 INF: Sardinas
    1.0 Perez
    3.3 Harrison$ 13 insurance
    1.0 SP: PerezTJSurgery
    3.3 SP: Harrison$13ins
    113.0
    Last edited by Flounder1; 10-24-2014, 02:39 PM.

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    • #3
      How are you getting $113? Backing out Harrison? I think the Rangers are still on hook for half of Harrison once insurance kicks in. I'd have to look up to verify. Lewis will cost more than $5 million. Feliz, Ogando, Ross, Martin will all make more than what you have listed.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by cty View Post
        How are you getting $113? Backing out Harrison? I think the Rangers are still on hook for half of Harrison once insurance kicks in. I'd have to look up to verify. Lewis will cost more than $5 million. Feliz, Ogando, Ross, Martin will all make more than what you have listed.
        Yes, that is the same percentage of his salary paid by insurance as reported in the papers. So, yeah, we get a big break there. No, there has never been an article that said we're on the hook for half of it. The insurance was reported as a percentage way higher than half. If Lewis costs more than $5 million, get someone else. He won't make that much. I think Ogando might make more, but why? He didn't even pitch last year and you are going to give him a raise? Some might make a little more, but not much more. Martin's actual contract number is listed.
        Last edited by Flounder1; 10-24-2014, 05:20 PM.

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        • #5
          Your numbers aren't accurate. Ogando is going to make at least $3 million, probably closer to 4 than 3, He made 2.65 last year and will get an arb raise. Feliz made $3 million in 2014 and will get a decent arb raise in 2015. Your numbers are wrong on Leonys, he will make 4.75 this year. Ross and Tolleson are both 1st year arb and will get raises. If the Rangers won't pay Colby more than $5million the A's, Angels, Cubs and Astros among others will be lined up to pay him more than that. I'm guessing he gets a 2 year $16 million with 3rd year option for another $8 million. That will be a good deal for both sides.

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          • #6
            Does the $24 mil for Fielder include the money they got back from the, Tigers?.... How is that figured in? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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            • #7
              Originally posted by pibrew
              Does the $24 mil for Fielder include the money they got back from the, Tigers?.... How is that figured in? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
              No. Texas doesn't receive relief on prince's contract until next season. Rangers will get $6 million a year for 5 years.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by pibrew View Post
                Does the $24 mil for Fielder include the money they got back from the, Tigers?.... How is that figured in? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
                Not this year, but in 2016 it drops to $20 million, then in 2017 and 2018 it drops to $18 million. In 2019 and 2020 it is $17 million.

                The $30 million that Detroit is eating could be used to backload a contract for a good pitcher. For example, if you could sign Shields to a five-year $90 million contract, you could pay him $12 million his first year, then $15 million his second year, then pay him $21 million per year for the remaining three. This would appear to be extending three players, Shields, Fielder and Choo, into unproductive years as they age, but you could lessen that burden by trading one of them as our younger players develop.

                Even if that means eating some contract, that younger player would soften the blow a whole lot because they make so little money their first three years. Like if Mazara comes up in 2016 making the league minimum, you could erase a lot of cost for Choo's contract by trading him, if not all the cost. That is why $20 million does not seem like too little money to make room to sign a really good pitcher.

                If by 2017 we have an inexpensive outfield of Williams, Brinson and Mazara no one is going to be too worried about carrying an aging player or eating some contract. The Rangers have plenty of money, in other words, to get what we need. If they don't want to use the money, they have plenty of good, young players to trade.

                I also doubt that the Rangers have any self-imposed hard cap if the right opportunity comes along.

                All this excessive worry about money is foolish when the Rangers stand to lose 800,000 or more paying customers next season if they aren't winning. It is even more foolish when you consider that by being too cheap the Rangers could very well squander having Yu Darvish and Adrian Beltre on the team the next two years. They both could be gone in 2017 without the Rangers winning anything, if they are not careful.

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                • #9
                  I wonder when the Rangers with one of the largest media markets is going to get an ownership not afraid to spend money?

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                  • #10
                    Beginning sometime...NOW.. the Rangers get something like $80mm-$90mm / season instead of the $20mm-$30mm / season from their TV deal. Does that seriously not impact the player budget at all?

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                    • #11
                      What gets me is that there net loss wasn't that much considering how much the team value has appreciated since the current owner purchased the team. They bought it for over 500 million and now it's worth over 800 million. Not bad. (This is according to Forbes.)

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                      • #12
                        Yes, this poor-mouthing is a joke. We heard it all last year, then they turned around and signed Choo and traded for Fielder's big contract. The Rangers have tons of cash, but OK, let's pretend they're broke. LOL.
                        Last edited by Flounder1; 10-26-2014, 06:41 PM.

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                        • #13
                          I have heard you mention this many times, but who says they are broke? I would love for them to spend money, but they seem right about where they should be IMO. They had the 8th highest payroll in 2014. The Mets, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Diamondbacks, and Padres all have lower payrolls and bigger populations. I know why some are there, and not saying they shouldn't. By no means do I think they are broke, and it isn't my money so I say spend, spend, spend but you also have to look at this as a business. They are competitive about where they should be. You could make an argument for the 150MM level I guess, but not sure it would be fiscally responsible to spend with the Yankees and Dodgers.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by MushMouthMike View Post
                            I have heard you mention this many times, but who says they are broke? I would love for them to spend money, but they seem right about where they should be IMO. They had the 8th highest payroll in 2014. The Mets, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Diamondbacks, and Padres all have lower payrolls and bigger populations. I know why some are there, and not saying they shouldn't. By no means do I think they are broke, and it isn't my money so I say spend, spend, spend but you also have to look at this as a business. They are competitive about where they should be. You could make an argument for the 150MM level I guess, but not sure it would be fiscally responsible to spend with the Yankees and Dodgers.
                            Based on 2013 estimates, the DFW Metroplex is the 4th largest metro area in the US. Ahead of them are NY/Newark, LA/Long Beach, and Chicago. Kind of shoots down the theory that Phoenix, Houston, and San Diego are larger.

                            And how are the Astros, Cubs, White Sox, and D'Backs doing?

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                            • #15
                              Shoot, Ft. Worth alone is larger than Boston, and we have that little burg east of there, too. Arlington! Uh, well, there is at least one more city of significance around here. Boston doesn't seem to have trouble spending money. What are we up to? Around seven or eight million in the Metromess? And, it's not like fan interest ends at the borders of the Metromess. About all of Texas and Oklahoma are thrilled when we get into the postseason. No one is saying spend stupid, but managed right this team can spend with the so-called "big boys" where necessary.

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