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Congrats Nels! Why the hate?

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  • Congrats Nels! Why the hate?

    Congrats Nellie Cruz For a deal well-earned. Can't help but think this is gonna haunt the Rangers .... exactly what the M's needed.

    As usual, he will do nothing but defy the irrational brigade of Nelson Cruz haters, let by the Grand Wizard of arrogance Dave Cameron (he's kind of to Nellie what Randy Galloway is to John Daniels) and his ardent disciples like Jamey Newberg.

    It's just so bizarre. None of the pundits even on Brian Kenny's MLB Network show thought this was any worse than an "OK" deal yet here we are stil espousing the same nonsense that led to a season's worth of embarrassment for those guys as they boo'd the guy 40 times when balls left the yard last year, continuing his exact same power pace as 2013.

    Most closely comparable deals signed in the past 2 years: Jhonny Peralta, Curtis Granderson, Michael Bourn. I think Seattle getting a player of this caliber for relatively modest money is quite the coup for them.
    The Texidor Tornado

  • #2
    I doubt its a deal that haunts the Rangers honestly. Nellie would have been great to sign for 2-3 years before last year. You probably get the last bit of production he has in him. Now you're paying for the player he has been for 4 years, and hoping he doesn't fall off a cliff due to aging. He isn't exactly what the M's need. The M's needed someone to get on base at the top of their lineup more then anything else. Their team OBP last year was 300, tied for 27th in the MLB. While their power was middle of the pack. They needed to get people on base to score runs, not get someone who will likely hit around 10-15 more HR then the person they replaced. Nellie won't hit 40 next year playing half his games in Safeco, and I doubt he'll play in 159 again either.

    The OBP thing is I suspect one issue that pundits were having with the deal, at least the SABR inclined ones. For the regular guys its they signed a 34 year old player expecting his level of play to not decline. That is the contract that Nellie got. He stayed healthy for only the second season in his career. He's now 34 with a track record of missing 30+ games a year and pretty much only brings power to the plate. He's a negative defender now. He's not got great wheels any more. So you're basically paying for a right handed power bat, and sticking him in a park that murders right handed power.


    • #3
      My point is not that this year's contract (unlike last year's buy-low opportunity) will haunt the Rangers. I don't really think it will.

      The point I was making is, it's incredible how some pundits just seem to have what appears to be a personal beef with this guy, because they repeatedly propegate a number of myths (primarily the Haters camp over at Fangraphs ... who just like Billy Beane are sometimes simply dead wrong, and operate on flawed assumptions) about Cruz that simply aren't true.

      For example, his OBP and walk rate is not bad for a hitter with his power, and never has been. Illustration: Cruz's 2014 teammate, Nick Markakis, age 31, just signed a 4-year, $44 milion deal with Atlanta. His primary positive offensive attribute is OBP.

      Last year's Markakis posted a .342 OBP. Nelson Cruz OBP was .333. Cruz's lifetime OBP? .328.

      Also, you made the statement that Cruz "stayed healthy for only the second season in his career"

      Not exactly.

      Cruz has not been on the disabled list OR missed any significant amount of time due to injury since 2011. Last year he posted 678 plate appearances, in 456 prior to suspension in 2013 when he played in every single game that he was eligible for, and in 2012, 642.
      So, the fact is he had two seasons, 2010 and 2011, where the had recurring issues with leg strains. Even in those seasons, he posted 445 and 513 PA's. Other than those two seasons, and every since, he has been a very durable player.

      So yeah I think The Mariners made a great deal, and got a lot of bang for the buck, especially considering contract comps Peralta, Bourn, Markakis, and Granderson.
      The Texidor Tornado


      • #4
        No serious analysts are going to love 4 year deals for 34 year old players. They are almost always failures because very few players have the physical abilities to allow them to perform at a decent level through age 37. The M's are basically betting he can play like he did last year, which is how he payed in his late 20s peak for 4 years. That's why its panned as a bad deal. It's the same reason that most thought our deal for Choo last year was bad. You're paying a guy for his mid to late 30s based on what he's done prior.

        You bring up Markakis. Most analysts dislike his deal also, even before the neck surgery. Its the same issue that they have with Cruz. You're paying a non elite player for what he's done prior as he's entering, or is firmly in, his decline phase. Markakis, according to fangraphs, is pretty likely to be worth about as much as Rasmus, Saunders, Aoki and de Aza next year. That's probably what they have Cruz projected for also, especially if they put him in right field.

        I will admit that I forgot about his asterisk year.

        For next year it probably will work for the M's, but that's more about the fact that their DH position was worse then ours last year and was profiling as worse then that for next year. So they likely made their team better for next year. That still doesn't make it a good contract but explains why they over paid to get it done. And yes it's likely a massive over pay because Cruz isn't likely to be the player he was last year again.


        • #5
          Originally posted by Derinyar View Post
          And yes it's likely a massive over pay because Cruz isn't likely to be the player he was last year again.
          That's what they say every year. Correct me if I've heard that before. For the price and his slugging capability and consistency, his bat is a gold mine. He's not there to win a gold glove and steal bases, though he obviously is capable of servicable time out there with a cannon that surely still has some juice. And he isnt exactly Papi old.
          The Texidor Tornado


          • #6
            The M's will hate this deal in about two years.